Liverpool hit with Man City blow as FSG wait on FFP punishment decision

Keeping pace with Manchester City has been not only the goal of Liverpool but also the rest of the Premier League for some time.

The 10-point deduction handed to Everton on Friday for one charge of breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations, decided following an independent commission hearing, has understandably placed focus on Man City and the 115 charges that they will face for breaching P&S rules.

That, too, will appear before an independent commission, with so much to pore through on both sides it is unlikely that it arrives any time soon, with even the end of 2024 seeming like something of a stretch.

For the time being it is business as usual and Manchester City, treble winners last season after their Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup triumphs, went into the international break at the summit of the league, a place they have become accustomed to occupying for much of the past six years or so.

Liverpool’s 2019/20 Premier League triumph is the only one to have snapped the winning streak since 2017 for Pep Guardiola’s side, while Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have been the closest to breaking that stranglehold during the past six years, with the Reds just 15 minutes away from a title success back in 2021/22.

But after that successful season, where the Reds threatened an unprecedented quadruple right to the very end before last-day heartbreak in the Premier League title race and a Champions League final defeat at the hands of Real Madrid, 2022/23 was one to forget. It proved to be something of the end of an era, with greats of the previous five years having either moved on during the summer of 2022, as in the case of Sadio Mane, or see the campaign be their last in a Liverpool shirt, such as Jordan Henderson and Roberto Firmino.

Liverpool needed a reset this past summer, they needed to overhaul key positions with younger talent. That actually started in the January of 2023 with the addition of Cody Gakpo, before the summer saw the arrivals of the likes of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch.

But last season’s fifth-placed finish in the Premier League saw Liverpool miss out on Champions League football for the first time since 2016, a season when they finished runners up in the Europa League. Since then the club have been to three Champions League finals, winning one. This season, though, it is back to Europe’s second tier competition, and while the target is very much to lift silverware in Dublin come May 22, financially this season is something that will show to have been impactful when the 2023/24 financial accounts are published in early 2025.

Liverpool’s accounts for 2022/23 will likely be made public in the first three months of 2024, with the season including the club’s fifth-placed finish in the Premier League but also the Champions League campaign where the club reached the last 16 before a rather humbling exit at the hands of Real Madrid.

But even though the exit was earlier than hoped for, and the finish outside the top four fell well below the standards expected of the Reds, from a financial standpoint in relation to competitive success it will still have yielded better results that what the current season will, even if the Reds win both the Premier League and the Europa League. That’s because the impact of missing out on the Champions League won’t truly be seen until the accounts for the 2023/24 period.

While some questions exist around whether or not they are legitimate title contenders this season, Liverpool look a strong bet to make the Champions League next season and right the wrongs of the last campaign. A return to European football’s elite knockout club competition will be a most welcome competitive and financial boost for the Reds should they achieve the aim this season.

But Manchester City’s financial results for 2022/23, published last week, show just how valuable the Champions League can be and highlighted that the gap between themselves and the current Premier League champions will likely grow before the Reds can start closing in once again.

Manchester City’s results for the most recent accounting period included their treble-winning season. City saw their revenue leap forward by £100m to £712.8m from £613m for the previous 12-month period, record-breaking figures. The club’s profit also almost doubled, from £41.7m in 2021/22 to £80.4m for 2022/23. A major factor for the increased revenue, alongside competitive success on the pitch, with the Champions League success delivering significant sums. All told, and including the additional broadcast equated to, according to figures presented by football finance expert Swiss Ramble, a sum of €131.4m (£114.9m) for last season. That figure is some £43.4m higher than what Liverpool were pegged to have earned for last season’s run to the quarter final (£71.6m), with the figures including prize money, UEFA coefficient, TV market pool and participation fees.

In contrast, the clubs in the so-called ‘big six’ that competed in the Europa League last season saw Manchester United’s run to the semi-finals earn them around £27m, according to Swiss Ramble’s figures, while Arsenal’s exit at the last 16 stage saw them bag £22.9m. Even a run to the final, and subsequent victory for Liverpool this season would likely yield around £35m to £40m, a sum that would trail some £60m or more behind what Manchester City would be expecting to achieve from their Champions League journey this season.

That creates a financial shortfall in comparison to Manchester City that Liverpool haven’t really had to face for some time, with the Reds having outperformed Guardiola’s side in European competition over the previous six years and having reaped the financial benefits that went along with that, affording them the ability to stop Manchester City disappearing over the financial horizon.

Commercial revenues are another major driver of revenue, and for 2022/23 Manchester City posted record numbers of £309.5m, although some may question their provenance. Commercial revenues at City have come under scrutiny from both UEFA and the Premier League, with the latter having charged the club with more than 115 alleged breaches of the League’s profit and sustainability regulations stretching over a period of more than a decade, with many charges relating to commercial matters.

Compared to what Liverpool achieved in 2021/22, where the Reds posted figures of £247m, that is a £62.5m (25%) difference. Liverpool, through a string of new commercial deals, including front of shirt renegotiations with the likes of Standard Chartered, a sleeve deal with Expedia and the further growth of their heavily incentivised kit deal with Nike, are likely to significantly grow commercial revenues for 2022/23, although it is highly unlikely that it will overtake Manchester City’s.

For the time being at least, regardless of the charges hanging over Manchester City’s head and the threat of severe punishment should they be found guilty now that some kind of precedent has been set with the example made of Everton, the gap is likely to widen between the Etihad Stadium outfit and the rest of the league.

Liverpool were the ones who were growing at the fastest rate of the challengers, but a season in the Europa League will, for a period at least, see them lose the chance to keep on the coattails of City. But Liverpool’s future is certainly more certain, and one that will see most revenue streams enjoy growth when the 2022/23 and 2023/24 accounts are published, even if the money gained from European competition is diminished year on year from where it was in 2021/22.

Manchester City may well prove to be innocent of the charges brought against them by the Premier League. However, as alluded to in the financial report where it was stated that a guilty decision would have a ‘material impact’ on the club, there will remain a great deal of uncertainty for as long as the situation rumbles on, which could yet run into years.

In the report, City chairman Khaldoon al-Mubarak stated that the club "welcomes" the review and that it has "irrefutable evidence" to support its position when the case is eventually heard. How long that may be is akin to asking the question ‘how long is a piece of string?’

Liverpool and their owners Fenway Sports Group will be watching with interest, as will the rest of the challengers wanting to take the crown, although Chelsea may find they have their own case to answer over payments made by former owner Roman Abramovich that allegedly breached profit and sustainability regulations.

For now, all Liverpool can do is keep striving for competitive success in order to give themselves the greatest leverage when it comes to growing its commercial success. So far it has worked.

Liverpool hit with Man City blow as FSG wait on FFP punishment decision

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